September is the best time of the year for the diehard NFL fanatics. But, for the players, the NFL draft is the most crucial event where data analysts determine their destinies.
Cutting-edge technologies and data-driven insights allow teams to acquire more picks and choose their next superstar, this year, Caleb Williams is the clear favorite to be the first pick in the NFL draft odds although he has made headlines for making the bold move of entering the NFL without an agent.
According to Statista, around 11.3 million people viewed the first round of the 2023 Draft. Therefore, in today’s article, we will dig deeper into how statistics impact the NFL draft so you can understand the 2024 draft like a pro.
Understand 2024 Draft Like A Pro – Impact of Statistics On NFL Draft
1. Evaluation of Potential Prospects
The data analytics team evaluates the players’ performance based on their college games and accomplishments. In addition, teams rely on machine learning algorithms to analyze patterns and correlations in players’ skill sets to predict their professional performance.
These models analyze pressure generated by pass rushers; yards after contact by running backs; adjusted completion percentage by quarterbacks; and many other metrics beyond simple box scores and traditional metrics.
With the help of these metrics, a more comprehensive picture of a player’s actual abilities and performance should be possible.
For instance, a quarterback’s completion percentage might provide only some information. Whereas, an advanced model may consider variables like dropped passes, pressure encountered during throws, and receiver separation to assess a thrower’s ability more accurately.
In 2018, the Baltimore Ravens selected Lamar Jackson as their quarterback against all the odds of his failure expressed by the team scouts. The Ravens had used machine learning analytics to identify Jackson as a promising player.
Surprisingly (or unsurprisingly – cause ‘Data’), in his second season, he won the NFL MVP award and is currently one of the league’s most active players.
2. Relying on Combine Measurements
NFL Combine is the standardized physical test that accurately evaluates a player’s athleticism, strength, and speed. Teams use this data to make informed decisions during the draft that will help them grab that silver Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Some of the critical measurements include:
I. Bench Press
It measures a player’s upper-body strength and endurance, indicating their ability to lift a certain weight off their chest – an important factor if players want to overpower their opponents.
II. 40-Yard Dash
The NFL uses this widely recognized metric that measures a player’s straight-line speed and explosiveness. It determines a player’s ability to break away from defenders.
III. Vertical Jump
You can assess a player’s lower-body explosive power and athleticism to make high-reaching catches or defend against jump-ball situations.
IV. Three-Cone Drill
As the name suggests this evaluates a player’s ability to change direction quickly, maneuver through confined spaces, and maintain body control.
V. Broad Jump
It measures lower-body strength and explosiveness. Higher body strength is required to generate power from the legs, which is crucial for various positions on the field.
3. Player Comparison and Ranking
Player ranking and comparisons are crucial in the NFL world. In fact, data analysts employ sophisticated statistical algorithms. These algorithms merge player statistics and the past records to objectively rank players and measure their worth in terms of how they contribute to team success. Moreover, it allows for finding latent talents that have the potential to outdo their draft positions.
For example, Russell Wilson is an inspiring case who was picked in the third round of NFL 2012. As undersized as he was perceived at college, statistics showed that Wilson had amazing skills. After that time up until now, he ranks among the best quarterbacks in his league.
4. Risk Assessment
It hurts when our favorite player is ruled out of the tournament due to injuries. Right?
Data analysts use a player’s injury history to determine if they are likely to sustain more injuries in the future that can, of course, hinder the team’s path to success.
Besides, we have often seen players break into arguments with opponents and match referees. The bad news is that recently many teams have started to keenly look into such issues putting the selection at risk.
5. College Metrics
Analysis of college performance is an essential aspect of NFL draft evaluation. Teams closely examine their consistency, and performance throughout their college career.
Yards and Touchdowns are essential measures of a quarterback’s ability to guide an offense. Teams evaluate a quarterback’s accuracy and general passing ability by using these numbers.
In addition, Rushing Yards and Touchdowns are essential to assess players’ vision, speed, and tackle-breaking prowess so they can regularly gain yards on the ground.
Final Words
By now, congratulations you may have become a data analyst pro.
Jokes apart, data analysis has been helping NFL teams since the mid-1990s. Numbers have the power to separate the extraordinary players from the ordinary ones. The advanced statistical analysis is objective in nature – meaning, that it can significantly improve overall team performance without any prejudice or bias-ness.
So, are you ready for the NFL Draft this April? Don’t forget to grab your favorite snack and wisely place your wagers for NFL draft odds.
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